總體審慎政策工具與臺灣房價的關係－－特定目標信用工具與房市相關租稅工具的影響

On Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices in Taiwan: The Effects of Targeted Credit Policies and Housing-Related Tax Policies

本文研究臺灣主管機關為管理房價而採用之總體審慎工具，包括房市相關租稅政策（即開徵特種貨物及勞務稅和調整房屋稅課徵內容）；以及特定目標信用政策（包括提高房貸風險權數、訂定貸款成數上限與貸款負擔率上限），對臺灣房價表現有何影響。本文研究發現房市相關租稅工具中，提高房屋稅稅率對臺灣實質房價有負面影響，然奢侈稅的施行影響卻不顯著。而特定目標信用工具中，貸款成數及貸款負擔率皆與臺灣實質房價間有顯著正向相關性；但提高房貸風險權數則未對房價造成顯著影響。本文研究發現不同政策工具調控臺灣房價的效果不盡相同，則主管機關在調控房價時若能考量工具效果的差異配套使用，整體效果當可更貼近央行穩定金融的政策目標。

This paper reveals how macroprudential policies, including housing-related tax policies and targeted credit policies, affect housing prices in Taiwan. Policies intended to limit the growth of housing credit are categorized as “targeted credit policies,” which include the imposition of a maximum DTI ratio and a maximum LTV ratio and increasing risk weights for mortgages, while the tax policies to influence the cost of purchasing or possessing a house are categorized as “housing-related tax policies,” such as stamp duties and property tax. The results of this paper show that raising the property tax rate has a significant negative effect on housing prices, whereas the imposition of a stamp fee and increasing the risk weights for mortgages do not impact housing prices in Taiwan. Moreover, tightening targeted credit policies, including lowering the maximum LTV and DTI ratios, can cause housing prices in Taiwan to fall. The results provide evidence for differences in the effects of macroprudential policies in Taiwan and suggest that a combination of policies can promote resilience in financial market.