全球去槓桿化之影響與因應對策

Global Deleveraging－Impacts and Policy Responses

本文探討去槓桿化之理論與實務議題，及全球去槓桿化過程中對我國資產價格泡沫之影響。高槓桿與信用泡沫是全球的問題，全球去槓桿化常在金融危機後進行，目前已從5個國家的10個部門展開，對金融與經濟產生嚴重衝擊，造成泡沫破滅、信用緊縮、流動性短缺、貨幣政策失效與經濟衰退。實證發現，全球槓桿累積與去槓桿化過程會透過擴大我國之產出缺口、信用寬鬆、外資流入及寬鬆貨幣政策而引起國內股價與房價之資產泡沫風險，有必要採取總體審慎政策與寬鬆貨幣政策以降低其衝擊。

This paper examines the theoretical and practical issues of deleveraging and the impacts of global deleveraging on the issues of Taiwan’s asset price bubbles. The high leverage levels and credit bubble are a global problem. Global deleveraging has only just begun within the household, business, and government sectors in mature economies and nearly always follows credit bubble and financial crisis. The financial and economic unfavorable impacts of deleveraging are serious, including bubble bursts, credit crunches, liquidity shortage, malfunctioning of monetary policy and economic recession. Empirical studies shows that global buildup of leverage and deleveraging will increase the risks of Taiwan’s asset price boom/bust through wider Taiwan’s output gap, loosening credit conditions, rising capital inflows and loose monetary policy. Macro-prudential policy and accommodating monetary policy are necessary to mitigate deleveraging impact.