颱洪災害脆弱度評估指標之建立：以南投縣水里鄉為例

The Establishment of Vulnerability Evaluation Indexes: The Case of Shueili Township, Nantou, Taiwan

在氣候與環境變遷衝擊下，世界各國對於環境衝擊的評估，由單純地評估傳統氣候的影 響，逐漸地轉以脆弱度（vulnerability）與回復力（resilience）等觀念，作為研究之切入點。國際上 現有脆弱度評估方式之實證多聚焦在國家或區域層級與縣市層級，且脆弱度評估指標較缺乏 回復力概念。因此，本研究首先收集與歸納國內、外相關文獻，並釐清實質環境脆弱度（physical vulnerability）、社經脆弱度（social vulnerability）、與回復力等三個概念，研擬鄉鎮層級颱洪災害 之脆弱度評估指標。繼而運用模糊德爾菲法（fuzzy Delphi），篩選評估指標，建立脆弱度與回復 力之評估指標體系，分別為3項評估標的、9項評估面向及19項評估指標；並以模糊階層分析 法（fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, FAHP）賦予權重。最後，挑選南投縣水里鄉作為評估指標之 實證研究地區。實證研究結果發現，水里鄉偏遠地區包括新山、興隆、新興、上安等村為整 體脆弱度高之村落，較容易受到災害的衝擊。本研究所建立之評估架構可供相關單位檢視各 地區脆弱度、回復力的程度，供作地區災害防救計畫、減災規劃等災害管理策略應用之參考， 以降低未來台灣災害的衝擊。

As a result of climate change, an increasing number of studies have focused on vulnerability and resilience in impact assessments. However, most empirical studies of vulnerability used the national and county level and the vulnerability definition did not include resilience. Thus, this study first reviews literature on vulnerability assessment based on physical vulnerability, social vulnerability, and resilience to establish township-level vulnerability indexes for typhoons and floods. This study uses the fuzzy Delphi method to eliminate indexes and establish 3 goals, 9 themes and 19 evaluation indexes. Additionally, this study uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to weight all indexes and finalize the indexes framework. Finally, Shueili Township is chosen as a case study and its vulnerability is assessed using these indexes. Assessment results show the remote villages in Shueili Township, such as Shinsan, Shinrown, Shinsing, and Sanan, are most vulnerable. The vulnerability assessment framework is helpful when evaluating the vulnerability of different villages, and assessment results will help in formulating disaster management policies and hazards mitigation strategies.