沿海居民的氣候變遷與颱洪災害調適

Adaptation to Climate Change and Typhoon-Flood Hazards in Coastal Areas

近年調適行為分析與評估，成為氣候變遷與災害管理政策研究的重要領域。然過去多認為資訊與資源提供，是影響調適的關鍵，而忽略心理認知、社會資本與集體行為，對於調適行為的影響。本研究應用社會心理與行為理論，建立氣候變遷與颱洪災害社會調適模型，以屏東縣沿海東港、林邊、佳冬地區為例，進行沿海居民災前整備、災時應變與災後調適行為分析，及探討其重要影響因素。研究發現居民不同階段調適行為並非獨立，而具有高度相關性。災害資訊提供不必然可引發居民的調適行為，居民的風險知覺、資訊信任與社會資本，方扮演關鍵角色。另亦發現對政府防災工程愈信任及愈依賴政府協助者，愈不會從事調適或愈偏好災時短期因應。最後，文中亦討論實證分析成果應用於調適政策的潛力與政策內涵，及後續值得投入的研究方向。

Adaptation analysis has emerged as an important research field in policy-making as it relates to climate change and disaster management. Most scholarly studies have identified the distribution of information and resources as the most significant factors that influence adaptation. However, adaptation research has mostly neglected the roles of cognition, social capital and collective activities in determining adaptation. This study applies a novel model of social adaptation to climate change and typhoon-flood hazards (MSACCTH). The incorporation of social psychology and behavioral theory differentiate this model from others. The MSACCTH is deployed to examine pre- and postdisaster adaptations and responses to climate change and disasters, as well as their determinants through a case study of Donggang, Linbian, and Jiadong in the southwestern coastal area of Pingtung County. A strong correlation exists between various adaptation stages and response behaviors. The distribution of information and resources does not certainly cause adaptations, but rather risk perception, information-related beliefs and social capital play roles in determining adaptations. Residents in the three cities trust structural measures and assistances from governments are generally unwilling to choose adaptations autonomously, and prefer short-term responses. Finally, implications of findings for adaptation policy-making and further research directions are discussed.