複合性災害評估架構研究：莫拉克風災為例

Assessment Framework for a Compound Disaster: A Case Study of Typhoon Morakot

在人類傾力與自然環境共處之際，極端氣候事件仍造成全球重大災害與損失，新興災害防治與評估研究為重要課題之一。本文以莫拉克風災為例，探討複合災害評估架構，輔以空間統計、災害關聯之損失推估與災害規模分析，藉由台南曾文溪流域進行案例研究。驗證分析結果顯示，首先在災害空間特性部分，各類型災害在上游與下游均有明顯的地域性群聚特徵；其次在災損特性上，複合災害次數與災害總損失間呈現高度關係；最後在不同空間尺度敏感性分析下，莫拉克各類災害空間關聯現象亦呈現顯著性。本文成果希冀能提供未來韌性都市面對複合災害影響關係的科學論證參考。

In a time where humanity increasingly must make an effort to live harmoniously in the natural world, the global toll from extreme natural events has become an important issue in disaster prevention and assessment. This study introduces the assessment framework for compound disasters with the spatial statistical model of compound disaster damage assessment and natural hazard scales to respond to the disaster management strategies. The study methodology has been tested using the Zengwun River catchment in Tainan, Taiwan as a case study. First, both upstream and downstream are the most local spatial areas for aggregation of a compound disaster; secondly, a line correlation exists between the number of compound disasters and total losses from such disasters. Finally, the significant correlation of spatial scale has been demonstrated to be remarkable. This paper also estimates the condition of disaster prevention and assessment under the relationship between compound disasters and hierarchical effect based on the resilient city of the assessment framework of compound disaster.