亞洲城市房價基值與泡沫

Fundamental House Prices and Bubbles in Asian Cities

本文探討房價與市場經濟基本面之間的關係，採用追蹤資料分析法，以亞洲六大城市（台北、東京、首爾、香港、新加坡與上海）1995Q3~2011Q4為實證範圍，由各城市之總體經濟變數決定房價基值，最後，計算房屋基值與真實房價間的差異求得各城市房價泡沫的大小。實證結果顯示：房價基值受利率、可支配所得、國內生產毛額、消費者物價指數所影響；至2011年底台北、新加坡與香港房價泡沫比例約30%，上海與東京房價泡沫比例約10%，首爾之房價泡沫較不明顯。

This study examined whether there were existing house price bubbles via the difference between fundamental house values and actual house prices in six Asian cities (Taipei, Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai) during the period 1995Q3-2011Q4. The fundamental house values in each city were calculated based on the long-run relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables. The empirical results revealed that fundamental house values were driven by lending rate, disposable income, gross domestic product and consumer price index. Notably a house price bubble appeared to account for about 30% of the house prices in Taipei, Singapore and Hong Kong as of the end of 2011. Furthermore, Shanghai and Tokyo also simultaneously had a house price bubble that represented about 10% of house prices. However, the house price bubble in Seoul was not obvious.