抑制房價以提高生育率：以台北都會區為例

Encourage Fertility via Decreasing House Price: A Case Study of Taipei Municipal Area

本研究為首次將台北都會區少子化與高房價兩個議題進行連結的研究。我們的實證結果顯示，總生育率、房價所得比、女性教育水準以及女性勞動參與率等四個變數具有長期均衡關係。房價所得比Granger影響總生育率，確認房價所得比為預測總生育率的重要變數。此外，所得效果機制使得房價所得比對總生育率的短期響為正向，而價格效果機制使得房價所得比對總生育率的長期響卻為負向。長期而言，當房價所得比、女性勞動參與率以及女性高等教育率增加1%，將使得總生育率分別下降0.141%、0.473%以及0.446%。近年來台北市都會區女性勞動參與率與女性高等教育率相對於房價所得比的成長已經逐漸緩和的情況下，房價所得比的增加，未來將主導生育率下降的影響應該可以預期。政府應思考降低生兒育女所必須的家戶形成成本，藉以提高生育率。合理房價的管理政策不應該僅侷限在民眾購屋公平性以及對經濟發展的影響，而是應該提升到如何維護社會安全的宏觀思維上。

This study explores the relationship between the low fertility and high house prices in Taiwan for the first time. Empirical result shows that an equilibrium relationship exists among the house price-income ratio, female labor force participation rate, and female rate of attaining advanced education in the long term. The house price-income ratio will Granger cause total fertility rate, confirming that the house price-income ratio is an important factor when predicting total fertility rate. Additionally, the income effect (price effect) causes the house price-income ratio to positively (negatively) impact the total fertility rate in the short term (in the long term). An increase of 1% in the house price-income ratio, female labor force participation rate, and female rate of attaining advanced education decreases the total fertility rate by 0.141%, 0.473%, and 0.446%, respectively, in the long term. Growth of the female labor force participation rate and female rate of attaining advanced education are moderate relating to that of the house price-income ratio in recent years. Therefore, we assert that the decrease in total fertility rate will be dominated by increases in the house-price-income ratio. The government should consider a housing policy that reduces the cost of household formation in order to increase the fertility rate. A housing price policy should not be managed from the perspective of equity for house buyers and impact on economic development, but rather from the perspective of maintaining social security.