知人知面不知心：購屋者房價預期之分析

Know the Face of the Person But Not Their Heart: An Analysis of Consumer’s House Price Expectations

住宅產品異質性高，且具有投資與消費雙重特性，過去研究多從總體面來探討房價預期假說，並已提出許多實證結果驗證，但是甚少從個體觀點來探究消費者對於房價預期的看法。因此，本文從個體面探討房地產市場環境、購屋者身分與心理行為以及其購屋偏好等因素對房價預期的影響，以及在不同景氣狀況之下購屋者對房價預期之差異。本文利用「台灣地區住宅需求動向調查」2007~2008年的資料，以購屋者對房價預期為類別變數，並使用多項羅吉特模型估計各影響因素對房價預期的影響程度。實證結果顯示購屋者身分、行為、目的與認知使得對房價預期產生差異，支持消費者對房價預期差異之假說。而女性購屋者對房價波動較敏感且對房價較樂觀，因此對房價看漲機率較男性高。此外，不同房地產景氣階段將導致購屋目的改變，在房地產景氣時購屋投資比例增加，購屋者房價預期差異較不景氣時各項差異均呈現增大趨勢。

Housing products are highly heterogeneous and reflect both investment and consumption behaviors. Previous studies have obtained outcomes with respect to the analysis of real estate price expectations from a macro perspective, but few studies have examined this area from a micro perspective. This study thus adopted a micro perspective to analyze the impacts of real estate market conditions, and home purchaser socio-economic characteristics and preferences on house price expectations. The data were collected from the 2007-2008 Housing Demand Survey, and a multinomial logit model was employed to estimate the influences of various factors on the multiple choice type dependent variable of house price expectations. The study results show that home purchaser socio-economic characteristics, purchasing behavior, purpose and recognition significantly influence different house price expectations. The results support our hypothesis regarding the variation of consumer house price expectations. Female home purchasers are more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to be optimistic regarding housing prices. Additionally, home purchaser price expectations are more likely to differ, especially in boom markets.