預期房價收益與台北市個體擁屋力

EXPECTATION OF PRICE APPRECIATION ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN TAIPEI CITY

本研究首先回顧擁屋力的意義與衡量方式，進而分析台北市擁屋者之購屋特性，而後依這些特性建立能考慮房價增值趨勢的個體擁屋力衡量模式。經由進一步分析，推導得台北市之購屋者多期望房價上漲幅度大於銀行利率收益，將所預期房價收益可作為虛擬資產（virtual equity），因而增加付款能力（additional payment capability），進而提高了擁屋力。亦即台北市的購屋者具有追求較佳利益的預期心理，考慮房價會增值的特性，乃將房價增值特性納入其付款能力的分析中，因而增加能償付房貸的金額（以減少家庭其他花費的方式達成），而提高其付款能力，可購得較高價位的住宅。其次，本研究乃進行數值演算實例說明，並初擬提高台北市民擁屋力之策略。

This study examines the meaning and measurement of individual housing affordability, with respect to the characteristics of home buying behavior in Taipei city. Here an index of individual housing affordability which relates the trend of housing price into a source of virtual equity for additional payment capability. For a willing risk taker, this capability may be utilized to bet his chance for additional gain through appreciation in home values.