以覆蓋模式分析震災臨時避難場所之配置規劃

STUDY OF THE COVERINGMODEL FOR THE EFFECTIVE LOCATION PLANNING OF TEMPORARY REFUGES IN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

台灣地區位於歐亞板塊之間，板塊擠壓活動頻繁致地震頻起，歷史上已出現多次嚴重的地震災害，因此防救災規劃對台灣地區而言是相當重要的課題。民國88年發生的921集集大地震，造成嚴重的災害，突顯台灣地區防救災規劃尚未健全之事實，亟待進一步重視發展。臨時避難場所是地震發生後供災民暫時集散使用，其配置規劃需要考量許多因素，包括：服務範圍、道路可通行能力、場所容量以及活動人口分布等。雖然已有許多文獻針對前述各個因素陸續進行研究，但目前尚未有將這些因素整合考量後而建立的避難場所配置規劃模式。本研究以設施區位分析之數學規劃模式為主體，將上述因素納入模式中考量，建立震災臨時避難場所配置規劃之方法，作為災前各地防災規劃之輔助分析工具。為確認模式之實用性，以台中市北屯區大德里與陳平里地區為對象進行實例分析，並採用地理資訊系統進行資料管理、參數估計與結果展示；分析結果可提供當地現有場所服務效能之檢討、增設場所配置區位規劃、以及未來對場所區位進行整體調整之短期、中期與長期改善策略建議。

Taiwan locates on the border between Europe Plate and Asia Plate. Since the earthquake happens frequently for the plates extruding and caused many serious earthquake disasters, the mitigation planning is very important in Taiwan. However, the serious disaster caused by Chi-Chi earthquake meant that the mitigation planning in Taiwan needs more improvements. The distribution of temporary refuges for earthquake disaster should consider many important issues, such as service distance, road reliability, refuge capacity, and population estimation. These issues had been studied individually, but have not been integrated into an effective decision approach. This study aims to develop location-allocation models of the temporary refuges for earthquake disaster. The abovementioned issues are considered in the models, by which a decision approach for the refuges distribution planning is designed. The case study of Da-de-chen-pin area in Taichung City is illustrated to identify the application feasibility of the developed approach. The GIS system is applied for data management, parameters estimation, and results display. It is found that the developed approach can be applied to analyze the refuges distribution in three phases: the efficiency examination of existed refuges in short-term phase, the locations of new refuges in mid-term phase, and the location re-arrangement of refuges in long-term phase.