家戶住宅區位選擇與地方財政分配之實證研究

RESIDENTIAL LOCATION CHOICE AND TIEBOUT HYPOTHESIS

C.Tiebout於1956年提出地方化財政理論，認為家戶會依各住宅區位所提供之公共設施服務水準、地方稅之課徵及住宅支出等來決定其選擇。而地方政府則依據家戶所負擔之地方稅賦來從事公共設施服務水準之提升。台灣地區實施地方自治，地方財政分配之合理性乃實為政府施政之思考重點。目前關於Tiebout假說之研究，大多為理論性的探討，本文則嘗試利用不連續選擇理論之Logit模型，以高雄縣為研究地區，建構家戶住宅區位之選擇模型。再經由模型計算家戶對住宅區位之選擇機率，進而將選擇機率加總，求出各分區之期望家戶數。最後將各分區選擇之相對比例之預測結果與實際地方財政之分配結果相互比較。本研究之實證結果顯示高雄縣之地方財政分配與居民之期望選擇結果一致。而經替選方案指定方式之比較結果發現，若以毗鄰之鄉鎮為家戶住宅區位選擇之替選方案，則模型之解釋能力較佳。

The distribution of fiscal budget between local governments is an important issue. In 1956 Chales Tiebout provides a theoretical model of testing the competition between local governments. It is assumed that household choose the housing location according to the public service level, the housing price and the local taxes as well. In this study we test the Tiebout hypothesis by directly estimating the probability of residential location choice for each household and aggregating the choice probability for each residential zone. We compare the distribution of predicted probability of housing choice against the current fiscal distribution to test the consistency of the two distributions. The empirical result shows that the probability distribution of residential choice is consistent to the fiscal distribution. We also conclude that the logit model structure is applicable in testing the fiscal distribution embodied on the Tiebout hypothesis.