人口與就業活動因果關係之研究

A STUDY ON THE CAUSALITY OF POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT

以往有關台灣地區人口與就業活動之研究多將二者視為各自獨立的部門，鮮少涉及其間因果關係之探討。究竟是「人跟隨工作」？抑或「工作跟隨人」？此課題近年來引起國外都市經濟學家研究的興趣。各類別產業的就業活動，在都市及地區的空間上是否及如何產生影響關係？地區交通條件與當地居住與就業活動水準又有何關聯？本研究根據台灣地區民國65年至80年之工商普查資料，利用複迴歸分析方法實證構建人口與就業活動因果關係模式，得到以下結論：1.製造業與礦業土石採取業有「人跟隨工作」之特性；水電燃氣業、營造業、商業與運輸倉儲業則有「工作跟隨人」之特性。2.不同類型就業活動間於空間上有不同的「競爭性」或「輔助性」影響關係。3.地區易行性愈高愈不利於二級產業在當地之發展，愈有利於三級產業在當地之發展，特別是「金融保險不動產及工商服務業」與「社會服務及個人服務業」。

There are few researches about the causality of population and employment on Taiwan area. Population and employment have been considered as two independent sectors before. Do people follow jobs?' or 'Do jobs follow people?' What are the relations among various kinds of industry activities? And what are the relations between local transportation condition and the amout of employment? This study establishes several sets of multiple regression equations to examine the causality of population and employment based on the Industrial Census data of Taiwan area from 1976 to 1991. The conclusions are made as follows: 1.The employment sectors of manufacturing and mining & quarrying reflect the characteristic of 'People Follow Jobs', while electricity, gas & water, construction, commerce, transportation, storage & communication are 'Jobs Follow People'; 2.There are different kinds of competitive or complementary relations between different employment sectors; 3.The higher mobility in one area would result in more disadvantages to the development of the secondary industry, but more advantages to the tertiary industry.