住宅及商業租金聯合均衡模型及交通政策影響分析－－紐約都會區之實證研究

THE UNIFIED EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL MARKET RENT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ON TRANSPORTATION POLICY － AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION TO NEW YORK METROPOLITAN

交通政策的實施對都市住宅及商業地價會造成影響，但其影響大小一般不易衡量。本研究引用市場均衡概念，並以不連續選擇理論之羅吉模型（logit model）為工具，架構一個計量經濟模型。此一模型可以用於聯合求解都市住宅及商業用地之價格（以租金表示之）。模型的建立以配合紐約都會區之實質發展以及資料詳細程度進行分區（包括就業分區、住宅分區及商業分區）並據以校估參數。在模型的求解過程中可同時算出各住宅區位、住宅形式、通勤運具與購物區位之聯合選擇機率及使用需求量。在政策分析方面，本研究假設於通勤尖鋒時段增加地下捷運運輸班次為原來之兩倍，分析結果顯示在縮短等車時間之後，郊區及市中心曼哈頓（Manhattan）區之住宅需求下降，而環繞市中心之其他分區如皇后（Queens）區、布魯克林（Brooklyn）區及布朗克斯（Bronx）區之住宅需求增加，而地租也隨之上漲約1%。

The impacts of transportation policy on urban residential and commercial rent has generally been approved, but the measurement of the impact effects is still remaining uncertain. This study established an empirical simulation model to capture the changes of commercial rent as well as residential rent due to a transportation policy. The model is constructed base on the concept of market equilibrium and by means of the well known multinomial logit (MNL) model which is frequently discussed in discrete choice theory. The constructed model has been successfully applied to the New York metropolitan area. The joint choice of residential location, housing type, commuting mode and commercial trips as well as commercial travel mode is computed. When the subway waiting time is reduced by halving its headway, the model depicts the decreasing of housing demand in Manhattan and increasing in suburban boroughs: Queens, Brooklyn and Bronx. This also results in I% increase of housing rent in suburban areas. This study illustrates an important experience in modeling the housing and commercial rent market and would be helpful in the future studies of Taiwan cities.