通貨膨脹與貿易開放性之關係－－分量迴歸於追蹤資料的應用

THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND TRADE OPENNESS THE APPLICATION OF PANEL DATA QUANTILE REGRESSION

本文使用Koenker(2004)的追蹤資料分量迴歸方法分析一國的貿易開放性對於國內通貨膨脹率之影響。我們分析全世界118個國家在1973～2007年間的追蹤資料，實證結果發現貿易開放性對通貨膨脹的影響為負向，同時，通貨膨脹愈高的國家，其負向影響也愈強且顯著，而通貨膨脹較低的國家，其負向影響較弱，並且不顯著。此結果支持在權衡貨幣政策有動態不一致(dynamic inconsistency)問題下，通貨膨脹與貿易開放性有負向關係，且通貨膨脹愈高的國家，其動態不一致問題愈嚴重，此負向關係愈強；反之，通貨膨脹較低的國家較能克服動態不一致問題，故負向關係較弱。實證分析考慮匯率制度，或以非OECD國家為樣本時，結論一致。對0ECD國家的實證研究則顯示，貿易開放性對通貨膨脹率有負向影響且不因通貨膨脹高低而不同。

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and openness by using the quantile regression method for panel data of Koenker (2004). A panel data set of 118 countries from 1973 to 2007 was employed. The empirical result shows a negative relationship between openness and inflation due to the time inconsistency problem of discretionarymonetary policy. The negative relationship is significant and strong for countries with high inflation and is insignificant and weak for countries with low inflation. This provides empirical evidence that the time inconsistency problem is greater for countries with high inflation and lesser for countries with low inflation. Furthermore, the results were robust for all countries after controlling for exchange-rate regime and for non-OECD countries. For OECD countries, the results showed that a negative relationship exists between openness and inflation for high and low inflation rates.