國外經濟衝擊、勞動跨國移動與匯率政策

FOREIGN ECONOMIC SHOCKS INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY, AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES

本文建構一個包含本國（小國）及第1國和第2國（兩大國）的三國模型，據以分析本國釘住第1國通貨或第2國通貨或通貨籃時，小型開放 經濟面臨國外經濟衝擊的行為反應，並特別考量勞動跨國移動對結論的影響。我們的分析發現，在長期均衡裡，國外貨幣供給變動對於本國所得及利率等實質變數沒有影響（即貨幣在長期具中立性）；但在短期，本國所得受外國貨幣政策衝擊的程度會隨跨國勞動移動程度的增加而遞減，且當勞動可在國際間自由移動時，本國所得可完全免於受到外國貨幣衝擊的影響。不過，若國外干擾的來源是財政支出的改變，則不管長期或短期，本國經濟都會受到衝擊。此等結果意味著小國的政策當局可藉適當的開放外勞措施，來減低本國經濟遭受國外的衝擊。

This paper develops a three-country model (including two large foreign countries and one small home country) to investigate the behavior of the small open economy responding to foreign economic shocks under different choices to peg the currency basket. It is found that foreign monetary disturbances do not affect real variables (e.g., national income and interest rate) of the home country in the long run, while the effect of external monetary shocks on the national income of the home country will lessen when the international labor mobility is larger. Under perfect international labor mobility, the small open economy will be insulated from monetary disturbances originated in the rest of the world. However, the small country will be affected by external fiscal disturbances in both the long- and short-run. This implies that the home country can deregulate on labor control internationally in order to minimize the impact from foreign economic shocks.