外部危機對台灣觀光產業市場價值之衝擊研究

The Impacts of External Crises on the Market Value of Tourism Industry in Taiwan

觀光產業對各種天然及人為災害相當脆弱敏感，諸如1997年發生的亞洲金融風暴、1999年台灣的921大地震、2001年的911恐怖攻擊事件、2003年的SARS疫情及2004年的禽流感疫情等事件每每對觀光業造成鉅大的損害。自1970年代以來，危機管理漸獲重視。危機管理學者主要是研究如何面對風險個案，如何事前預防及事後補救等等。危機管理的課題在休閒觀光管理上尤其重要。為了預防災害事件對觀光產業可能造成的財務損失，吾人有必要對這些災害的財務後果加以了解。本研究的主要目的是研究台灣的觀光業股價對災害的反應。從公司的觀點，股價關係公司價值及權益融資，災害所造成的股價反應勢必影響公司財務規劃及公司未來發展。本研究發現台灣的觀光業股價在災害發生時經歷大幅下跌，而自1997年亞洲金融風暴至2003年SARS疫情間，其跌幅更是遠超過大盤。在災害威脅不斷的處境下，為求避險，觀光業者應盡量先採內部現金流量融資或槓桿融資，以減輕股價下跌的風險。

Tourism industry is vulnerable to nature disasters, military events, plagues and so on. The events such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Taiwan’s 921 earthquake in 1999, the 911 terrorist attack in 2001, the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the Bird Flu in 2004 damage tourism industry very much. Crisis management, which analyzes of how crisis cases should be faced and of recovery situations, has been paid attention increasingly since the 1970s. For prevention of possible financial damage from these disasters, it’s crucial to realize the financial consequences by them. The main purpose of this paper is to study the stock price responses of Taiwan’s tourism industry to these substantial disasters. From the viewpoint of corporations, the stock prices are related to the value and the equity financing of corporations. This paper finds that Taiwan’s tourism industry experienced large stock price falls under these substantial disasters. For alleviating the risk of price depreciation, tourism industry might as well finance by internal cash flow or leverage.