三種網路效應下市場潛在規模之估計

Estimating Potential Size of Markets Characterized by Three Types of Network Effects

文獻中較少提供廠商如何估計具有網路效應的市場的潛在規模，且未見文獻使用多種網路效應來探討此一議題。因此，本研究提出一個模型，在三種（遞增的、穩定的、遞減的）網路效應下，估計三種（接納的、穩定的、抗拒的）市場的規模，發現：（1）接納的與穩定的市場中若有遞增的網路效應，則市場潛在規模將非常大、（2）接納的市場中若有穩定的網路效應，則市場潛在規模亦將非常大、（3）穩定的與抗拒的市場中若有遞減的網路效應，則市場潛在規模將受到限制與（4）抗拒的市場中若有穩定的網路效應，則市場潛在規模將受到限制。

Few studies in the literature of network effects have guided firms to estimate the potential size of a market. No study, as we know, has used various types of network effects in addressing this issue. This paper thus proposes a model for estimating the potential size of markets characterized by three types of network effects -- accelerating, stable, and decelerating -- in three types of markets: receptive, stable, and resistive. This study found that (1) receptive and stable markets with accelerating network effect will result in a very large market size; (2) receptive markets with stable network effect will also result in a very large market size; (3) stable and resistive markets with decelerating network effect will result in a constrained market size; and (4) resistive markets with stable network effect will also result in a constrained market size.