使用S曲線模型進行技術預測分析：以自由軟體Linux為例

To Use the S Curve Model Carry out the Analysis of the Technology Forecast - an Example for Linux

技術預測是科技管理領域中相當重要的研究主題之一，當企業能夠領會某一特定技術的發展有其極限時，若能洞悉極限之所在、掌握目前的位置及明瞭此一位置距離極限尚有多少空間，而此空間又在多少時間內將被填實時，企業即能進行決策決定是否將繼續投入公司研發資源於此一技術上，或轉換到另一條技術上。本文先對正負向回饋循環與網路外部性及轉換成本，探討技術擴散及套牢轉換成本問題，後就生命週期與S曲線作一討論；末以技術預測模式S曲線為理論依據，使用Loglet Lab為工具，將自1993年起至2000年止自由軟體協會所提供的全球Linux系統安裝估算數進行使用市場的直接S曲線預測推估，及利用自1993年起至2000年止全球主要學術資料庫對Linux的發表情形來進行技術市場的間接S曲線預測推估。

The technology forecast in the science management realm is an important research subject. A company is able to understand the limit of a certain technique. If the company knows where is the limit and how much time will finish, then it will decide whether put more resources for the technique or change to develop another. The article focuses on the positive and negative feedback cycle, the characteristic of the external network, the transform price, then to discuss the extending of technology, the problem of the lockup transform price and the relation between the life cycle and the S curve. The article’s theory is base on the technology forecast model, S curve model, and to use the Loglet Lab as the tool. According to the association of the free software provided the estimated data of the world Linux system from 1993 to 2000, and then to proceed with the evaluation of forecast. To use the Linux announcement state of the main academic’s data bank in the world from 1993 to 2000, estimates the forecast of the indirect S curve in the technique market.