要素替代、要素密集與均衡（不）安定——關稅融通教育支出的角色

Department of Economics Fu Jen Catholic University

本文引進關稅融通機制至一個兼有固定替代彈性的生產技術與具外部性的公設技能教育的兩部門小型開放經濟模型，據以探討均衡的（不）安定性。研究發現：若進口中間財和進口最終財課徵關稅的稅率相同，當最終財為勞力密集時，體系呈現鞍點穩定；最終財為非勞力密集時，體系呈現不安定的狀態。數值模擬分析發現：當中間財稅率小於最終財稅率時，若最終財為勞力密集，則動態體系具有馬鞍安定的均衡；若最終財為非勞力密集，且當(1)中間財生產要素替代性愈大；或(2)中間財與最終財稅率差異愈大；抑或(3)政府支出的生產外部性愈大，則動態體系愈容易產生多重收斂路徑。而中間財稅率大於最終財稅率時，則無論最終財要素密度為何，都不會有多重均衡的情形。

This paper introduces a tariff financing regime into a two-sector small open economy model with CES technologies and skill education externalities. Under this theoretical framework, we study the occurrence of indeterminacy. Our main results are the following: given an equal rate tariff on both imported intermediate goods and final goods, agents' expectations cannot be fulfilled, and thus indeterminacy disappears. We find that as long as tariff rates are equal, the economy exhibits saddle-path stability when the final good is relatively labor-intensive; whereas the dynamic system is unstable when the intermediate good is relatively labor-intensive. However, if the tariff rates are unequal, our numerical simulations show that the economy may exhibit indeterminacy depending on the relative magnitude among these structural parameters such as tariff difference, skill education externality, factor substitution in intermediate goods, and the endogenous factor-intensity in final goods.