全球犯罪率為何同步下降

Why theft, robbery and homicide drop internationally?

從2013年聯合國預防犯罪和刑事司法大會中總結的國際犯罪情況報告，以及歐洲1999-2005年的各國犯罪被害調查報告中，犯罪學者發現國際犯罪率從1990年代的二十年，呈現下降趨勢，其中尤其以財產犯罪下降最為劇烈，暴力犯罪也穩定略降。學者在摸索、找尋為何國際犯罪率下降的原因中，整合了十五種假說，經過各種驗證，似乎指出保全系統或情境安全機制的假說最具有解釋力。本文簡單介紹了學者如何驗證這些假說後，認為對於犯罪率下降的這個現象，可能需限縮在「傳統犯罪類型」（如：殺人、性侵害、住宅竊盜、汽機車竊盜、搶奪），尚無法概推到「非傳統犯罪類型」或各國全般整體犯罪率是否下降的事實。此外，十五種假說中，保全系統或情境安全機制難以解釋認識者或無法監控的暴力犯罪。而找尋人性中非暴力的善力如何形成及影響暴力犯罪，也可能列入第十六種假說，等待驗證。

The Thirteenth United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in 2013 and the 1999-2005 ICVS and the EU ICS both reported a dramatic drop on major violent and property crimes in the past 20 years, especially for the property crimes. Many studies have sought to explain the crime decline internationally. Farrell (2013) has conducted 5 tests to examine 15 hypotheses and found that improved security passes all tests. This paper argues that it is unclear that unconventional crimes and general crime rates drop over the same period. In addition, it is insufficient to apply improved security hypotheses on violent crime drop. Perhaps, we argue, our better nature towards non-violent society can offer a possible explanation as the 16 hypothesis to be tested in the future. Further discussion is made in the end of the paper.