台灣國際觀光旅館發展趨勢之動態模擬

Dynamic Simulation of the Development and Trends of International Tourist Hotel Industry in Taiwan

觀光產業發展首要便是旅館經營，台灣旅館產業經歷衰退與再成長，產業變動劇烈，如何找出最有利發展模式便為關鍵議題。本研究以系統動態學方法探討台灣國際觀光旅館產業型態及發展結構與趨勢；透過文獻及訪談，整理旅館產業一般特性與台灣特色，並找到三個關鍵環路，在各項因素交互作用下，形成複雜、動態的系統結構。研究發現產業投資策略對未來發展影響最大，分析需求面旅客人數及供給面服務品質，最終反映在收入及盈餘，進而帶動投資與成長。透過模擬結果，廠商應謹慎評估投資，因過度投資將導致住房率下降，進而影響獲利。政府可從需求面對總房間數控管，亦可考慮舉辦大型展覽活動、增加國內旅客住房人數，從而提升產業發展。

The operation of hotels comes to mind when talking about the development of the tourism industry. The Taiwanese hotel industry had gone through recession and re-growth. Finding the most effective mode of growth has become the most important issue. This research applies system dynamics to study the structure, development pattern and trends of Taiwan's international tourist hotel industry. Through literature reviews and interviews, the general and the salient characteristics of Taiwan's hotel industry were identified. In addition, three key causal loops were discovered in the system. Various factors interact with each other, forming a complex and dynamic structure. This research found that the main influence of Taiwan's international tourist hotel industry development is the investment strategy. By simulation the increase of the number of tourists and the improvement of the service quality will eventually result in increased revenue and profits, and will lead to even more investment. According to the simulation results, owners of hotels should evaluate investments cautiously. Overinvestment in the industry will result in a decline in average occupancy rates, and thus affect industry profitability. The government should consider regulating the total number of rooms. In addition, the government can also hold large-scale exhibitions to attract foreign tourists and increase the maximum number of mainland tourists to Taiwan to enhance the development of the hotel industry.