中國「21世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略之研究

A Study of the Strategy of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

「21世紀海上絲綢之路」是中國於2013年時提出的戰略倡議，配合「絲綢之路經濟帶」構想，從陸海兩端擴大和周邊國家間的經貿交流及設施聯通。這一戰略不僅具有影響歐亞大陸政治格局之潛力，對於作為傳統陸權大國的中國而言更是別具意義。為釐清該戰略之內容，本文由歷史脈絡、現實動因、可能挑戰與應對方針等四個面向，對「21世紀海上絲綢之路」進行分析。研究結果顯示，此一戰略為中國近代海權意識發展的階段性成果，體現其加強經略海洋空間的意志。中國政府寄望藉由該戰略之落實，在國內外尋求多項政治、經濟與安全方面的重大利益。然而該戰略涵蓋之議題與地理範圍廣泛複雜，中國未來在建設「21世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略時，恐將面臨來自海洋爭端、國際權力競逐、恐怖主義威脅與自身能力限度等方面的挑戰，必須保持政策方針的靈活與彈性，漸進擴大與相關國家的合作範圍及共同利益，並設法彌補自身之不足，方能為戰略的持續開展創造有利條件。

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road was a strategic initiative brought forth by China in 2013 to go with the idea of “Silk Road Economic Belt” that aims to maximize its economic and trade exchange and facility interconnection with the surrounding countries through land and sea. This strategy not only carries the potential of affecting the political layout in Eurasia; it is particularly meaningful for China, a traditional great power known for its land rights. In order to gain further insights of what the strategy involves, the significance, motivation, and prospect of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are analyzed in this article. Results of the study showed that the strategy came from the modern awareness of maritime rights of China, indicating the country’s determination to reinforce its management of maritime zones. The Chinese government also hopes to gain multiple major political, economic, and safety interests domestically and internationally by consolidating the said strategy. In light of the extensive and complex issues and geographical scope included in the strategic planning, however, when promoting the strategy in the future, China is likely to be faced with maritime disputes, competition over international power, threat of terrorism, and limits of its own capability; it must keep its policies nimble and flexible in order to gradually maximize its scope of collaboration with other countries concerned and the joint interests while at the same time trying to make up for its own deficiency so as to create desirable conditions for continuous strategic expansion.