自然災害的人文成因──以近代中國水災問題為例

The human causes of natural disasters ─Approach on Floods in Modern China

自然災害主要指氣候、地理等自然因素所造成的災害，從人文的觀點而言，自然災害破壞力的大小有其不可忽視的長、短期人文背景，其包括的範圍甚廣，舉凡社會、經濟、制度等與人文活動有關的問題皆屬之。中國歷史上最大的自然災害為水災，可見水災對國計民生的廣泛影響。本文擬以近代中國水災問題為中心，探討人文因素如何直接與間接地影響自然災害的發生，並加重自然災害的破壞力；至於時間斷限，主要集中在19世紀中葉至20世紀中葉之間。導致水災的人文成因中，水利問題實居於主要的關鍵因素。水利問題又可從長期背景與短期背景兩方面加以探討，前者為社會經濟因素，其影響水利問題為較長時期累積，並間接導致自然災害發生或擴大災情，例如：土地的開墾、水土保持的忽視、民眾生活習性等；後者包括時局因素與水利行政因素等。災象初成，應變與危機處理能力良窳，亦是災害發生與災情大小的直接因素之一，以水災來說，即搶險的成敗，故置於文末一併探討。

Natural disasters mainly refer to disasters that are caused by natural factors such as climate and geography. From humanistic point of view, however, there are noticeable long-term and short-term humanistic causes for destructive natural disasters. These can be traced back to social, economical, and institutional origins that are related to humanistic activities. Floods have been the worst natural disasters in Chinese history. It had led to profound impacts on nationwide economy and livelihood of people. The aim of this paper is to investigate how humanistic factors may have directly and indirectly caused and worsened the flooding damage in modern China from the mid-19th century to the mid-20th century. Water conservation plays a crucial role as a humanistic cause, and it may be analyzed from two different points of view. Socio-economic factors, such as land reclamation, neglecting of water and soil maintenance, and residential habits, have long-term influences on water conservation and thus cause the disaster indirectly. On the other hand, short-term contemporary political situation and administration of water conservation lead to direct impact. In addition, since the accommodation ability of the society to the flooding disaster determines the degree of damage, related issues will be discussed as well.