新回合農業談判對台灣農業部門與總體經濟影響之一般均衡分析

The Impacts of New Round of WTO Agricultural Agreement on Taiwan’s Agricultural Sector and Economy: An Economywide Analysis

本文以可計算一般均衡模型與資料庫來進行新回合農業談判之模擬分析，在此以HS 8 碼商品別作為分類與計算的基礎，利用分段公式（tieredapproach ） 設計模擬情境， 進行個別商品的關稅削減與境內總支持（AMS）減讓模擬之設定。研究結果顯示，農產品關稅的降低雖可誘發工業及服務業產出的增加，但農業部門則因為國內生產毛額與實質國民消費的正面誘發效果不大，加上進口品大量的湧入，導致關稅的下降對農業部門本身產生不利的效果，故在長期之下，總體經濟雖呈現正面的影響效果，但在個別農業部門的產出則呈現負面的影響。而在境內總支持（AMS）部分，不管是對於總體經濟面或是個體經濟面，農業部門AMS的削減在產出、就業與出口方面皆可帶來微幅正面的影響；此外，由不同稻米AMS 削減的模擬結果推論，過度保護稻穀產業將會造成資源扭曲之負面效果，對社會福利與其他農業部門產生較為不良的影響。

In this study, we investigate the economic impacts of the agriculturalnegotiations of WTO Doha Round negotiation on Taiwan’s economy withspecial emphasis on agricultural sector using a computable generalequilibrium model of Taiwan derived from the Australian ORANI model.A WTO module is developed for setting up the market access simulationscenarios by adding alternative tariff reduction schemes using a HS 8-digit tariff schedule and a tiered formula approach. Product-specificreductions of Aggregate Measurement of Support are also simulated forthe proposals on reducing domestic supports. Simulation results showthat most of the agricultural sectors will suffer from negative outputeffects but the overall economy will benefit from tariff reductions.Reduction of domestic supports will have little effect for agriculture, butoverproduction on rice creates negative welfare and inefficient resourceallocation effects for the economy and other agricultural sectors.