遊戲類App：下載因素、下載機率、市場佔有率、以及Google與Apple平台間掠奪率

Game Apps: Influential Downloading Factors, Downloading Probability, Market Share, and Sales Cannibalization between Google Play and App Store

隨著智慧型手機與平板電腦快速普及，行動商務得以飛快發展， 其中行動應用程式 （App）更是蓬勃發展。調查顯示遊戲類App是最多消費者下載的類別， 因而影響消費者下載遊戲類App的因素、 如何計算下載遊戲類App的機率並進而推估市場佔有率， 以及預測兩大App商城Google Play 、App store之市場相互掠奪程度，則是學界及業界亟待解答的研究問題， 此類研究也幾乎沒見諸在國內外研究文獻。本研究發展出對數選擇模型 （logit model）， 並以層級羅吉斯迴歸 （hierarchical logistic regression） 分析，針對曾下載過遊戲App的消費者進行問卷調查，經紙本與網路兩種問卷於四大管道發放，共回收有效樣本627份，有效樣本率95％。研究結果顯示26.8％的消費者曾付費下載遊戲App，而產品屬性的風險、相對優勢，環境變數的人際影響、知覺有用性與知覺易用性顯著影響消費者是否下載遊戲類App，但價格對消費者下載遊戲類App並無顯著影響。對人際影響重視的消費者會選擇下載的機率是對人際影響不重視消費者的2.62倍、近三個月有下載過遊戲App的消費者，其會下載遊戲App的機率是近三個月沒下載遊戲App的 42.77 倍。研究預估Google Play遊戲App的最終市場佔有率為57.1％。最後本研究提出學術與實務上的意涵。

The mobile commerce boosts recently for the widespread use of the mobile devices like smartphones and tablets; the application store becomes a top focus. While the game Apps are the ones which mostly customers choose to download, how to find out the factors affecting consumers to download game Apps, predict the probability of downloading game Apps and its market share, and calculate the sales cannibalization between Google Play and App store are the important research questions for academia and practitioners. This study develops the logit models and hierarchical logistic regression to answer these research questions. Through the Internet questionnaire on the BBS and paper questionnaires, this study reports data collected from 627 respondents. The results show that the risk, comparative advantage, interpersonal influence, perceived usefulness, and perceived ease of use significantly influence consumers to download the game Apps. Additionally, the perceived ease of use significantly affects the perceived usefulness. This study estimates the purchase probability and predicts the Google Play’s ultimate market share of 57.1％. The academic and managerial implications will be provided.