財務會計準則第四十號公報規範不確定性分析揭露之資訊內涵

The Informativeness of Uncertainty Analysis Disclosure Under TFAS No. 40 in the Insurance Industry

不確定性分析旨在提供會計衡量值之點估計的信賴區間，此項揭露通常被認為具有資訊價值(IASB 2010; CFO Forum 2009)。然而，與之相關的證據仍不多。本研究為第一個針對保險業精算假設的不確定性分析之資訊內涵進行探討的研究，使用台灣保險公司於2011 年及2014 年間的此項揭露資料，實證結果顯示精算假設變動所造成的盈餘變動和下一期的盈餘變動有正向關係。再者，由於風險管理委員會在保險公司風險管理政策上扮演相當重要的角色，本研究亦探討風險管理委員是否影響此項揭露之資訊內涵，實證結果顯示若風險管理委員會品質較高，即當委員會成員數較多或是委員會員平均出席率較高，此項揭露的資訊內涵也較高。本研究的結果清楚地呈現不確定性分析之揭露有助於了解公司未來風險，可以作為主管機關在遵循國際財務報導準則時的參考依據。

Aiming to provide a confidence interval of the point estimate of reported accounting performance measures, uncertainty analysis disclosure is usually considered to contain valuable information (IASB 2010; CFO Forum 2009). However, little empirical evidence has been documented. As the first study to examine the relevance of such disclosures, we examine the mandatory disclosures of Taiwanese insurance companies during the period 2011-2014. The result finds a positive relationship between the absolute values of earnings effects due to changes in actuarial assumptions and the insurers' earnings change in the subsequent periods. In addition, because the risk management committee is responsible for formulating and implementing the risk management policies of an insurance company, we find that the informativeness of the uncertainty analysis disclosure is improved by the quality of the risk management committee, measured by the committee size and the attendance of the committee members. Our findings provide critical insights for regulators when applying the International Accounting Standards.