擴散模型於半導體區位與銷售分佈之應用分析

The Application of Diffusion Model in the Analysis of Location and Sales Distributions for the Semiconductor Industry

本研究藉由擴散模型分析半導體各產業及各地區的發展狀況與產品口碑效應，提供國內半導體業界對於未來策略發展的參考。本研究取得1991年1月至2010年1月之月資料，運用Bass擴散模型在全球半導體產業上進行研究。研究結果顯示邏輯IC在半導體產業中未來最具市場潛量，且產業發展重心逐漸從歐美大廠移轉至亞洲，隱含歐美高階半導體公司致力於晶片開發，外包亞洲半導體廠從事晶圓製造，全球半導體產業朝向輕晶圓廠或無晶圓廠的製造策略演進，此外，本研究發現邏輯IC口碑效果最強烈，邏輯IC主要廣泛應用於最新的數位資訊與消費性電子產品上，因此，消費者滿意度與口頭宣傳決定邏輯IC的銷售，半導體廠商在行銷方面就必須特別注意消費者滿意度與提高顧客的忠誠度。

This study seeks to apply an effective diffusion model to explore the location and production strategies of semiconductor industry. Our sample focuses on the monthly global semiconductor shipment values from 1991 to 2010. This study shows that logic IC will have the greatest market potential in the semiconductor industry in the future. In addition, the production locations of semiconductor industry have gradually transferred from America or Europe to Asian areas. European and American semiconductor companies adopt fab-lite and fabless strategies, so they concentrate on chip development and outsource wafer fabrication to Asian foundries. Finally, we find that the word of mouth effect is the largest for the logistic integrated circuit industry. Since logistic integrated circuits are prevalently applied to digital and electronic consumer products, the consumer satisfaction and word of mouth determine the sales of logistic integrated circuits. In the marketing aspect, semiconductor firms need to pay attention to consumer satisfaction, and raise consumer loyalty.