禽流感事件對台灣生技醫療產業股價影響之研究

A Study of the Effect of Avian Influenza on Stock Market in Taiwan’s Biotechnology Industry

亞洲禽流感疫情傳出警訊時，亞洲股市蒙上陰影，台股大跌，但是生技製藥產業類股，卻因疫情效應逆勢走揚。本研究目標在檢定禽流感事件對台灣生技醫療產業上市上櫃公司是否產生顯著的累積異常報酬，分析台灣生技醫療產業個別公司之財務比率是否影響累積異常報酬，並探討財務比率影響個別公司累積異常報酬之可能原因。本研究以事件研究法之市場模式來探討禽流感事件對台灣證券市場上市及上櫃生技醫療產業股票異常報酬之影響，並運用複迴歸分析相關財務因子對異常報酬的影響程度。事件期間自2005年10月4日至2005年10月26日，以事件期間前100個交易日為觀察期間，20家上市上櫃公司為觀察值。實證結果顯示，台灣生技醫療產業確實因禽流感事件產生正的異常報酬；在財務因子方面，本研究採用的五項財務因子，對於禽流感事件股價正向異常報酬的影響因素為存貨週轉率、毛利率、而流動比率、淨值比率及公司規模則為負相關。公司之經營管理階層諾能提升公司之毛利率及存貨週轉率，健全公司經營體質，則可以降低在不確定環境中的波動風險，以利永續經營及發展。

During the period that Avian influenza was suspected to impact Asia area, the stock marketwas deeply affected by the news of the infection. This study applied the market model and regression ofevent study to explore the abnormal return and financial ratio about the Avian influenza catastrophe of thebiotechnology industry in Taiwan. The empirical period is from October 4, 2005 to October 26, 2005,including 100 observations. The result indicated that the positive abnormal return occurred in thebiotechnology industry. As for the financial factor analysis, there are five financial ratio applied in thisstudy. The ratios of inventory turnover and grass margin are positive correlation with the averageabnormal returns. Owing to the investors are concerned with the grass margin of the company. Investorsargue those companies who make more benefits are available. The study also finds that the inventoryturnover rates have positive reaction with the abnormal returns. It is indicted that the efficient inventorymanagement is contribute to the prices raise.