氣候模擬模型的確證問題

Confirmation of Climate Models

模擬方法不僅是氣候變遷研究的主流研究方法，亦使用在估算氣候變遷對於經社效益影響的政策分析，故當代氣候研究不但是模型化科學的代表，同時具體地表示模擬模型所在開放複雜體系的研究中所扮演的重要角色。換言之，除氣候模擬的討論可作為科學模型的案例，顯著地反映科學模型的相關重要科哲議題之外，並可展現科學家使用抽象的模型以探討不可控制的開放複雜體系的研究之方法論、知識論、至本體論層面的探討。本文以氣候模擬模型為例，說明傳統邏輯實證論的確證理論不敷科學實作之需，應重新檢視哲學的確證理論與科學模型所扮演的角色。

By critically appraising the logical positivist theory of confirmation and the philosophical accounts for climate simulation models, this paper investigates the issues of model confirmation in the contexts of scientific practice of climate study. The epistemic merits of simulation models, which are regarded as fictions due to the idealization in the model building process, are to serve as heuristic tools the model users use to achieve a certain purposes. In climate sciences, models are thus evaluated according to whether or not they are adequate for the purposes of empirical examinations.