臺灣地區水泥業CO2排放變動效果因素分析——投入產出結構分析法之應用

Assessment and Analysis of Reduction for Cement Industry in Taiwan-An Application of Input-Output Structural Decomposition Method

現代建築主要的結構是鋼筋混凝土，其關鍵材料就是水泥，也因此水泥是全球目前最基本也是應用最廣的一種建築材料。1980年台灣地區水泥業的CO2排放量為4683101公噸，2006年則增加為7641225公噸，增加率高達63%，且長年位居產業CO2排放量之前幾名。由於京都議定書已於2005年2月16日生效，台灣雖非簽約國，但若不積極針對溫室氣體的減量問題謀求解決之道，則勢必將面臨其它簽約國的貿易制裁。本研究以投入產出結構因素分析法探討1989~2004年間台灣地區水泥業的CO2排放量結構變動因素，包括排放係數、能源配比、能源總密集度、生產總值、產業中間投入、產業中間供給、國內最終需求、出口等八項因素，作為台灣地區水泥業CO2排放關鍵因素以及減量規劃之依據。結果顯示：1989~1994年間台灣地區水泥業CO2排放量增加，主要受到國內最終需求增加所致；1994~1999年間排放量減少主要為產業中間原料供給下降與能源總密集度改善；1999~2004年間排放量增加主要受到能源總密集度惡化及出口增加所致。因此，本研究建議未來台灣地區水泥業，應加強技術研發以達到節約能源與改善能源密集度，減少CO2的排放量。

Cement is one of the fundamental industries of the country. The increase of CO2 emission has reached 5960 thousand tons during 1980-2006. Herein, this research uses the input-output (I-O) structural decomposition method to examine the changes in CO2 emission over a 15-year period. By decomposing the CO2 emission changes into nine factors for the periods of 1989-1994, 1994-1999, and 1999-2004, we have identified the key factors causing the emission changes, as well as the most important trends regarding the industrial development process in Taiwan. The results showed that during the 1989~1994 the advancement of the domestic final demand was the primary factor of the increase of CO7 emission; during the 1994-1999 the primary factor of the decrease was due to the decline in intermediate material supply and energy intensity improvement; during the 1999~2004 the factor of the increase was as a result of the increases in the energy intensity and the exports. According that finding, this research recommended that cement industry should improve manufacturing process and energy intensity to reduce the energy consumption and CO2 emission.