臺灣地區電力事業效能提升及燃料替代對產業關聯之影響分析

A Study of Inter-industry Linkage Effects on Efficient Advance and Alternative Fuel of Electricity Industry in Taiwan

本研究為探討電力事業中二氧化碳排放趨勢，以投入產出分析法及模糊目標規劃法搭配IPCC法，推估1996~2006年間整體產業各能源CO2排放量。重點為次級能源電力與CO2間的關聯性，並依據我國長期開發方案之資料，推估我國2007~2015年間CO2排放量，並進一步建構投入產出模糊規劃模式，擬定未來電力事業可行的CO2減量方案，其中包括發電機組燃料替代與電力效率提高兩種，並且分析減量方案中產業CO2與GDP兩者間的關係。本研究所獲得之模式基本方案為經濟成長率3.51%及CO2排放量368,207千公噸，生產毛額結構以其它服務業佔總額最高(43.53%)，其次為商品買賣業(13.53%)、倉儲通信業(9.10%)、電機業(7.09%)、陸上運輸及運輸服務(3.32%)，上述這五項產業為支持國內經濟的重要產業；CO2排放量最高的前五個產業及部門包括路上運輸及運輸服務(19.32%)、住宅部門(12.36%)、石化原料業(11.62%)、鋼鐵業(7.72%)及商品買賣業(5.13%)。二氧化碳減量方案中，電力機組燃料替代模擬結果顯示燃煤發電機組改為燃氣發電機組或零排放替代能源時，皆能有效降低CO2的排放量，且能使產業GDP年平均成長率上昇；另一方面電力效率提高模擬結果顯示亦有助於CO2減量及GDP年平均成長率上昇，但當電力效率提高為20%時，整體產業之經濟成長率已達到極限值為最可行方案。本研究所得的結果可提供相關單位規劃電力事業中二氧化碳減量的參考。

The purpose of this study is to explore the trend of CO2 emission in the electricity industry. An input-output analysis and fuzzy goal programming along with the IPCC method are employed to estimate the volume of CO2 emission produced from power sources in the electricity industry from 1996 to 2006, focusing on the correlation between derived energy and carbon dioxide. The potential volume of CO2 emission in Taiwan between the years 2007 and 2015 is also estimated according to the information on the government's long-term development program. Furthermore, the input-output approach and fuzzy goal programming model is constructed to draft future CO2 reduction program for the electric power industry. The program includes fuel substitute of dynamotors and the promotion of electrical efficiency; at the same time, analysis is made on the correlation between carbon dioxide and GDP in this CO2 reduction program. The follow factors are substituted into the input-output approach and fuzzy goal programming model constructed in this study. It is carried out that the basic result from the model is economic growth rate 3.51%, CO2 emission 368,207 thousand metric tons and basic simulated result of industry modules. The ”other industries” takes the major part of GDP (43.53%), followed by trade business (13.53%), storage and communication (9.10%), electronic engineering (7.09%), and land transportation and its related services (3.32%). These five are fairly important industries that support Taiwan's economy. It is found that the top five industries (or departments) that contribute the CO2 emission are land transportation and its related services (19.32%), the department of housing (12.36%), the petrochemical material industry (11.62%), the steel industry (7.72%) and the trade business (5.13%). In the CO2 emission reduction programming, simulated result obtained when operating dynamotors with alternative fuel indicates that when replacing fuel dynamotors with gas dynamotors or zero-emission alternative fuels, the volume of CO2 emission can be decreased efficiently; meanwhile, the average growth of annual GDP increases. Another according to the simulated result of raising electrical efficiency can be decreased the volume of CO2 emission and the average growth of annual GDP increases, too. But when the electrical efficiency raises by 20%, the economic growth of the entire industry reaches its limit value to the most workable program. In this study can be provided to related departments for reference to further map up the reduction of CO2 emissions in electricity industry.