準無限容量服務系統之轉乘等候時間研究

A Study on Transfer Waiting Time for a Quasi-Infinite Capacity Service System

基於對使用者滿意度與業者作業能力之影響，等候時間一直是服務作業管理領域之重要課題。本研究建立數學模式分析旅客搭乘市區接駁公車至高鐵車站轉搭高鐵之轉乘等候時間。分析模式將旅客行為、接駁公車系統之服務可靠度以及高速鐵路本身之營運特性同時納入考量。又因為台灣高鐵系統目前的營運型態具有低座位使用率與高發車頻次之特性，因此本研究之模式將其合理假設為準無限容量系統。而為了較貼切地描述旅客之實際行為，研究進一步將旅客分為掌握班表與隨意搭乘兩類；前者屬已訂位或有事先預計搭乘班次之高鐵旅客，後者則無，他們僅隨著接駁公車何時到高鐵站便就近搭乘即將到站之高鐵班車。在實務案例方面，本研究選定高鐵台中站與其接駁公車之營運現況資料做數值分析。結果顯示，在現行作業情境下，高鐵之台中至台北平均班距不應高於24 分鐘，或者是接駁公車之班距變異係數不能高於0.46，才能確保旅客之平均轉乘等候時間不至太長。研究亦發現，就一個整合性服務系統之作業而言，單靠高鐵本身之營運改善是不夠的，還必需有健全可靠之接駁系統相搭配才能有效提升整體服務效能。

Waiting time is a critical issue in service operations management because of its impacts on user satisfaction and operations capabilities. This paper aims to develop a mathematical model for analyzing passenger waiting time in a high speed rail station where the system is served with feeder buses. The model measures interactions of passenger behaviors, reliability of feeder buses, and characteristics of high speed rail altogether. In addition, owing to the low seat utilization rate and high service frequency of the current Taiwan high speed rail, it is assumed as a quasi-infinite capacity system. Moreover, passengers are categorized into two groups, named scheduled and random, respectively. Empirical data in high speed rail Taichung station are taken for numerical analysis. Results of the study found that under the current operations conditions, the Taichung-Taipei headway of high speed rail system should not be 24 minutes more or coefficient of variation of feeder buses should be kept under 0.46 to avoid the longer waiting time. In general, it is concluded that the high speed rail system would really improve its service quality only if the feeder system also provides good reliability.