探討技術變遷的週期循環：1976-2003年之顯示器技術發展

Finding Cycles in Technological Change: An Analysis of Displays, 1976-2003

本文之研究目的在於瞭解技術環境的動態性週期循環的變遷過程，以及此過程是否具有混沌現象，理論背景上援引技術創新文獻、結構化理論與混沌理論，並視技術變遷過程為一個經歷著過去、現在與未來的社會系統。為了實際表現技術變遷的週期效果，我們應用混沌理論中的衡量工具，蒐集美國專利商標局的專利資料，就顯示器技術進行李雅普諾夫指數的量化分析，並藉由次級資料回顧顯示器技術革命與廠商互動的歷史事件，實際詮釋技術變遷模式。分析結果揭示，顯示器技術之發展軌跡的確經歷了「變革－－結構－－變革」交織而成的週期回饋循環，同時受到失序的變革力量與秩序的結構力量所影響，表示看似隨機的技術變遷過程在本質上並非隨機，而是具有命定性混沌特質之表現。

Recent years have seen increasing acceptance of the paradox of technology and innovation management. Paradox is inevitable, as the conflicting trends between order and disorder, continuity and radical change are prevalent in the high-tech environment. In reality, however, the distinction between order and disorder, continuity and disruption is difficulty to assess. Most studies have taken one of the two stances by explaining either that technological change is determined by the social pressures, or created by the risk-taking entrepreneurs who are able to change and control their environment. The literature’s emphasis on a disorder-order dichotomy allows us to address one of the significant gaps in the literature, its broad neglect of disorder-order linkages. This paper uses chaos theory for the design and measurement of disorder-order linkages. Chaos theory was a new science in the 1970s, developed to reveal the fine and orderly structure out of a disorderly stream. Concerned with finding order in disorder, and separating structure from disruption, chaos theory persuades us to think of the technological change process as evolving linkages of disorder and order over a long time period. Application of chaos theory to the social science varies widely. In this paper, our approach can be divided into two steps. The first step is a mathematical one, centered on the use of time-varying Lyapunov exponents to search for disorder-order linkages. Secondly and on the basis of the first-step results, we apply an interpretation approach to accounting for industry dynamics in the real word. In order to illustrate a chaotic phenomenon of disorder-order linkages, we empirically study the evolution of display technology from 1976 to 2003. Our study makes important contributions to the literature. Specifically, we extend existing technological change research from either heroic logics of revolution or the particular constraints of institution to a dynamic, interactive analysis that allows for disorder at the same time as order. This analysis advances our understanding of technological change as cycles or repeated patterns of disorder-order linkages. Just as Van de Ven and Rogers (1988: 638) argue, a satisfactory technological change model should move beyond “a stage-to-stage conception of the innovation process, to a dynamic, continuous conception of change over time.” Using chaos theory to inform issues of disorder and order in high-tech technology evolution, our study approaches technological change “by loops rather than by lines” (Pettigrew, 1990: 10) and practically illustrates this idea by display technology change process. Analysis of disorder-order linkages is also important to practicing managers, in that periods of technological change condition the source of environmental opportunities and munificence that are central to entrepreneurship and innovation.