《易經》早期管理決策模式與西方管理決策模式之比較分析

A Comparison between I-Ching’s Early Management Decision-making Model and Western Management Decision-making Models

《易經》是中國古人的智慧結晶，千百年來一直備受後人於日常生活決策時的重視與參考依據。近年來，不論中外都開始盛行將《易經》思想發揮運用於企業的經營管理實務中，然而相關的文章論述大多屬於古文的說文解字式，或是使用者的主觀經驗表達式，較少見源自現代社會科學方法基礎下的研究結果。緣此，本研究首先利用內容分析方法，試圖找出《易經》之卦名、卦辭和爻辭中，常見的單字所可能蘊含的現代管理決策概念意義。接著，透過《易經》早期管理決策模式的整理，包含決策的前提假定、情境與步驟等要素，再將之與西方的完全理性決策模式、有限理性決策模式、偏愛決策模式、直覺決策模式與垃圾桶決策模式進行比較性分析。

“I-Ching” , also called as ”Book of Changes” , the ancient Chinese wisdom book, has been often used for helping people to make decision in daily life for thousands of years. Recently, Eastern and Western scholars have started to discuss how to apply the wisdom of “I-Ching” to the field of business administration and decision-making practices. But the majority scholar to study “I-Ching” throw energy into “practice divination” research of respect, only paying attention to the interpretation or critique of the text. So, “I-Ching”s own values and thoughts of decision-making are limited within the range of the narrow and small one. Unfortunately, related literatures based upon social science research foundation are few. If “I-Ching”s spirit, principles, thoughts, and methods of decision-making, could be scientifically summed up and arranged, and further to be combined together with modern west decision-making management thoughts. It will produce a meaningful cross-cultural comparison result of managerial decision-making thoughts, Thererfore, this research hopes to be based on modern administrative decision theory structure, analyzing “I-Ching” Early Management Decision-making Model. Therefore, the authors, first, adopt content analysis method to find out the possible modern management decisionmaking constructs, i.e. single words frequently appeared in the context of “I-Ching”. This method attempts to explore “IChing” s administrative decision-making meaning contained. But the analysis result finds that even these 100 single words that appear often most are for the auxiliary word that indicates the trouble or good fortune, unable to appear what kind of obvious modern managerial decision-making meanings or concepts which it contains. Trace it to its cause, single Chinese word is difficult to be determined censured meaning intension finally. Usually, only a whole phrase or context can be confirmed its explanations or meanings of managerial decision-making result. And then, the authors explain the managerial decision-making model of “I-Ching”, which includes the premises, the decision contingencies, and the decision process. To represent “I-Ching” of the eastern early managerial decision-making thought, it was turned into the vocabulary of modernized managerial decision-making academy. Then, by way of managerial decision-making academy in the comparative analysis method, “I-Ching”s Early Management Decisionmaking Model is compared with Western management decision models which include rational decision-making model, bounded-rationality decision-making model, intuitive decision-making model, implicit favorite decision-making model, and garbage-can decision-making model, to tentatively interpret the similarities and differences on a great deal of managerial decision-making characteristics. “I-Ching”s Early Management Decision-making Model is the same as bounded-rationality decision-making model, intuitive decision-making model, implicit favorite decision-making model, and garbage-can decision-making model. All these models argue that individuals are unable to reach full rationality. Because of bounded rationality, difficulty degree of managerial decision-making will increase, but a different one is that bounded-rationality decision-making model, intuitive decision-making model, and implicit favorite decision-making model argue that, the policymaker get used to choose the final solution in accordance with oneself's passing relevant experience. In other words, while managerial decision-making is processing, it emphasize the entity of policymaker, and the degree of policymaker's involvement in the decision process is very high, including setting favorite decision-making principles, choosing alternatives to be considered, and the following cost-effective evaluation. According to “I-Ching”, managers are under the state of medium degrees of rationality, they are unable to grasp enough necessary information of carrying on managerial decisions. They must make final managerial decisions which depend on probability or life intelligence of ancient to obtain messages of predicting the future. In addition, possible variation tendency of making final decisions are seldom to be emphasized in that abovementioned western management decision-making theories, namely comparatively lack the concept of contingency in tactics of making managerial decision. But “I-Ching”s Early Management Decision-making Model has offered this view, it could tell sudden change possibility and provide answers of managers' state of affair in advance. It means that after the managers(the persons who divine) get alike and possible Yao of a divinatory symbol through divining, they make the final decision with the annotation of Kwa Ts'i（卦辭）and Yao Ts'i（爻辭）, and making preparation in advance via the annotation of Yao’s variation( move Yao’s position) which points out the possible change direction of decision situation that may cause the things better or worse. Therefore, managers could build up a quasi information system to authorizing themselves to constantly revising and modifying the decision process. It lets managers have psychological preparation in advance in order to predict or accept the result of the final managerial decision result , even finely tune the behavior a little while the implementation of managerial decision carries out finally, in order to control the appearing of final managerial decision result. Therefore, we could argue that, with respect to western managerial decision-making theories, “I-Ching”s Early Management Decision-making Model relatively allow managers more interpretation flexibility on making the final decision. In other words, “I-Ching”s Early Management Decision-making Model permits managers to make final decisions more contingent. We can't regard the practise divination of “I-Ching” as the mysticism. Although “I-Ching” can give play to the role of predicting ,but itself doesn’t has any mysterious strength to help us to surmise the future, However, “I-Ching” has inherent philosophy reason and concepts. By emphasizing “I-Ching”s scientific and logical characteristics in evaluating each possible situations, its dynamic thinking holds the prediction function of divining correctly, and embody the meaning to be graspedded by it properly.