當前中國大陸房地產市場走勢及可能的影響

Analysis of the Trend and Impact of China's Current Real Estate Market

2014年中國大陸房地產市場疲弱，房地產開發投資成長速度放緩、商品房銷售面積和銷售金額下降、房價自5月起連續5個月下跌，已直接或間接影響相關的投資與消費，而房地產相關行業占中國大陸國內生產總值（GDP）超過4成，房地產市場疲弱將影響中國大陸內需與投資，衝擊經濟成長目標。中國大陸房地產市場下跌，影響層面甚廣，中國大陸官方不可能放任其下跌，目前已採取提振住房銷售及放鬆住房貸款等救市措施，以維護房地產市場穩定，加上人民幣短期仍具升值趨勢，短期中國大陸房價大幅下跌的機會應不大，惟就長期觀察，當美國升息加速，又人民幣升值態勢終止，國際熱錢將退出中國大陸市場，中國大陸房價恐面臨大幅下修的命運。

China’s real estate market was weak in 2014. The slow growth of investment in real estate development, the decline in the floor space and sales of commercial buildings sold, and the decrease in housing prices for five consecutive months since May have directly or indirectly affected the related investment and consumption. The real estate related industries are more than 40 percent of China's gross domestic product (GDP). The weak real estate market will influence domestic demand and investment, and impact the GDP growth target in China. There will be a lot of influence if China's real estate market slumps. The government of China won’t sit on the sidelines and watch housing prices fall too far. Now China has issued policies such as loosening limits on property purchases and loans to keep the real estate market stable. Besides, the appreciation trend of Chinese Yuan exchange rate is consistent in the short-term. It’s hardly likely that China’s housing prices will fall sharply in the short-term. However in long-term observation, if the Fed’s rate hikes accelerate and the appreciation of Chinese Yuan exchange rate terminates, international hot money will exit the China market and China’s housing prices will be revised downward.