近年臺灣經濟情勢回顧——第13次景氣循環谷底初探

Dating the Turning Points in Taiwan’s 13th Business Cycle

臺灣自2009年3月開始邁入第13次景氣循環，於2011年2月達景氣高峰後，迄今已將近40個月，近期景氣同時指標亦已連續上升10個月，對策信號亦連續呈現穩定的綠燈，可初步研判第13次景氣循環谷底應已過去，正邁進下一個循環週期。因此，本研究透過綜合指數法、擴散指數法、馬可夫轉換模型、主成份分析法等計量方法，並參酌國內景氣同時指標、對策信號與當時國內外經濟情勢，最後綜合研判第13次景氣循環谷底為落在2012年1月，擴張期持續24個月，收縮期為11個月，全循環共計35個月。

Taiwan’s 13th business cycle started in March 2008. Up to now, nearly forty months have passed since Taiwan’s 13th business cycle peaked in February 2011; the coincident indicators rose for the ten month running and the monitoring indicators flashed the green signal for the eighth month. Coupled with the recent changes of business cycle indicators and signals, it can be tentatively concluded that the 13th business cycle has concluded and Taiwan has entered the next cycle. The study employs the composite index, diffusion index, Markov switching model and principal component analysis, consideration of the business cycle coincident indicators, monitoring indicators, and current internal and external economic conditions. Based on overall analysis of the empirical results, it is concluded that the trough of Taiwan’s 13th business cycle occurred in January 2012, with the cycle following a 24-month period of expansion, an 11-month period of contraction, and a 35-month period of the business cycle.