國內油價機制調整對經濟影響之研析

Assessment the economic effect of domestic oil mechanism adjustment

考量油價調漲對我國整體經濟有一定程度之影響，本研究首先檢視國際油價趨勢與國內油價調整機制，然後利用產業關聯分析法，模擬評估不同油價漲幅對經濟之衝擊。以油價調漲10%為例，2013年GDP將減少0.1~0.195個百分點（約減少新台幣150~293億元），CPI將上升0.61~0.98個百分點，主要受影響的產業為批發及零售、運輸倉儲、石油煉製品、營造工程、住宿及餐飲等。油價調整機制的採行，攸關社會觀感，對大眾具宣示效果，宜審慎考量。為因應油價調漲對經濟之衝擊，除應督促中油提升生產效率、降低營運成本，並適度反映在油價費率上之外，應配套提供對弱勢族群、低耗能企業與中小企業之照顧。

Considering that oil price rising has a certain extent effect on Taiwan's overall economy, this study first examines the international oil price trend and domestic oil adjustment mechanism, then uses industrial linkage analysis to simulate and assess in the case of increase of oil price. In 2013, the GDP will decrease 0.1~0.195 percentage point (approximately decrease NT$ 15~29.3 billion), and the CPI will rise 0.61~0.98 percentage point. The mainly affected industries are wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, petroleum refining products, construction, accommodation and food service. The model adopted by the oil price adjustment will affect the social perception and have declaratory effect to the general public, so it should be considered carefully. For coping with the economic effect of domestic oil price rising, in addition to urge CNPC to enhance productivity, reduce operating costs, and have an appropriate response on the oil tariff rates, government should take care of disadvantaged groups, low energyconsuming enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises.