中國大陸未來五年銀行業發展之機會與風險

Opportunities and Risks of Mainland China's Banking Industry Development in the Next Five Years

未來5年，大陸銀行業挑戰將大於商機。本研究結果發現，大陸銀行業授信榮景僅剩2年，且自2014年起授信市場將出現供過於求的情況，市場競爭將轉趨激烈。面對當前台資銀行積極前進大陸布局，除非業者能掌握為期2年的榮景，否則赴大陸投資恐未蒙其利，先受其害，必須審慎考量。相關政策建議如下：─建立整體風險控管總量機制：針對單一銀行，建議可採總量管制方式來調控風險，依其淨值15%加總後作為風險總量管制的標準。─強化大陸地區授信風險控管：針對銀行對大陸地區單一客戶授信總額，不得超過授信總額之百分之十，但如該百分之十數額未達等值新臺幣十億元，則以新臺幣十億元為限以強化授信風險控管。─強制揭露大陸地區授信逾放比率：建議針對銀行業者在大陸地區授信，按月公告其逾期放款金額及比重等資訊。

In the five years ahead, the challenges for mainland China’s banking sector will be greater than its opportunities. This study finds that the mainland’s banking sector can expect lending business to prosper for only two more years, with supply starting to exceed demand in the credit market in 2014, and with market competition becoming increasingly intense. While Taiwanese-invested banks are at present actively seeking to establish a presence in the mainland, they need to be able to take advantage of the positive market conditions in the next two years, or else face having to swallow losses before they can reap profit from their mainland entry. This warrants careful consideration by the banks. The relevant policy recommendations are as follows: ─ Establishing an overall mechanism for controlling aggregate risk: For an individual bank, we recommended taking an aggregative control approach to managing risk, setting a 15% net worth standard for control of aggregate risk. ─ Strengthening credit risk management in the mainland: Limiting a bank's lending to a single customer in the mainland to no more than 10% of its total lending, or to a maximum amount equivalent to one billion NT dollars if the 10% ratio is less than that amount. ─ Strengthening disclosure of the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of lending in the mainland: We recommend that banks engaging in lending in the mainland should be required to make monthly announcements of amounts, ratios and other information on overdue loans.