臺灣景氣對策信號編製之檢討

A Review of Taiwan’s Business Monitoring Indicators

現行臺灣景氣燈號係於2007年7月修正後適用，迄今已滿5年。這段期間全球經濟先後遭遇金融海嘯、歐債危機等因素干擾，經濟大環境劇烈變化，臺灣景氣波動劇烈，當年景氣燈號修訂時決定的構成項目與檢查值，未來未必完全適用，應有檢討空間。本研究全面檢視目前景氣燈號與各構成項目表現，建議修正如下：1.直接及間接金融表現不佳，難以反映景氣波動，建議剔除，所遺之構成項目改納入台經院發布之服務業營業氣候測驗點。2.製造業銷售值改以製造業銷售量指數取代。3.批發零售及餐飲業營業額指數改採批發零售及餐飲業營業額。4.檢查值部分，參考2000年1月至2012年6月資料，重新以Bootstrap抽樣方法決定。修訂後，景氣對策信號綜合判斷分數與經濟成長率相關係數高達90%以上，總燈號與個別構成項目燈號都足以反映景氣變化，可提供各界判斷景氣的重要工具。雖修訂後景氣對策信號表現良好，但使用上也存在限制，本研究除分析此種限制外，亦提出未來發布景氣燈號的政策建議。

Taiwan's current business monitoring indicator system has been in use for five years since its revision in July 2007. During this period, the world economy has been affected by the 2008 global financial crisis and the eurozone debt crisis, with dramatic changes occurring in the external economic environment, and with Taiwan experiencing sharp fluctuations in its domestic economy. Consequently, the components and check points selected at the time of the last revision may no longer be entirely appropriate in the future, and there is need for another review of the indicators. In this study, we comprehensively review the current business monitoring indicators, assess the performance of each component, and make the following suggestions: 1. The direct and indirect finance component has not performed well, with weakness in reflecting fluctuations in the economy. We suggest removing this component and including the service sector composite indicator issued by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) with the remaining components. 2. Adjusting the manufacturing sales component to replace sales value with shipment volume. 3. Adjusting the wholesale, retail and food sales component by changing from business turnover index to business turnover value. 4. Redeciding the check points using the bootstrap method, referring to data from January 2010 to June 2012. After the application of the suggested adjustments, the total score of the monitoring indicators shows a high correlation of above 90 percent with the economic growth rate. The overall monitoring indicator and components all adequately reflect economic conditions, and can provide an important tool for judging the state of the economy. But although the revised indicator system performs well, there are still some limitations on its use. This study analyzes these limitations, and presents policy suggestions for the future issuance of the business signals.