近期中國大陸房地產情勢與影響

The Situation and Influence of Mainland China’s Real Estate Market within the Near Future

多年來房地產投資熱絡固然有利中國大陸經濟增長但也推高房價，就2009年觀察，房價過高造成中國大陸85%家庭買不起住房，而城鎮居民房價所得比8.3倍，遠高於3-6倍合理的承受範圍，其中深圳、北京、上海等房價所得比分別為23倍、20.7倍、12.8倍，更遠遠超過臺北市2009年上半年房價所得比8.89倍；而商品房空屋率達30%以上，亦大幅超過15%的警戒線。中國大陸房價持續飆漲多年，2009年更因貨幣流動性氾濫，進一步大幅上漲，不少城市房價高得令人乍舌，顯現房地產泡沫化問題嚴重已威脅中國大陸經濟穩健發展，一旦房地產泡沫破裂後果恐難想像。為此，中共自2009年底起陸續採行相關調控措施，以抑制房價，遏制房地產投機，但整體房價跌幅仍然有限，後續成效仍待觀察。鑒於兩岸經貿關係密切，一旦中國大陸房地產泡沫破滅，難免波及台灣經濟，值得關注。

For many years, roaring investment in real estate has helped stoke mainland China’s economic growth, but has also pushed up housing prices. In 2009, housing prices had reportedly risen beyond the means of 85% of families, with the median home price to income ratio in urban areas having climbed to 8.3, far above the reasonable level of 3~6. The extremely high ratios of 23 in Shenzhen, 20.7 in Beijing and 12.8 in Shanghai were far above the 8.89 ratio in Taipei in the first half of 2009. Moreover, the commercial property vacancy rate was above 30%, far in excess of the 15% warning line. While housing prices in mainland China have been shooting up continuously for many years, they were pushed up extra sharply in 2009 by a massive surge of monetary liquidity. The astonishing price of housing in many cities shows that there is an asset bubble in the housing market serious enough to threaten the stable and healthy development of mainland China’s economy, while the consequences of the bubble bursting are hard to imagine. Hence, mainland China’s government has since late 2009 taken a series of measures aimed at curbing housing prices and restraining speculation in the housing market. However, these measures have had only a limited effect in reducing housing prices overall, and it still remains to be seen what subsequent effect they may have. Given the closeness of cross-strait economic and trade links, it will be hard for Taiwan to avoid being affected if the mainland bubble bursts. Therefore, this is a situation that warrants close attention in Taiwan.