美國房市景氣落底及對我國出口影響的探討

A Study on the US Housing Market Downturn and Its Impact on Taiwan's Exports

2008年下半年世界經濟景氣衰退得又快又急，除導火線的金融風暴外，房市及油市的過度擴張以致泡沫化，也是本次大衰退的主因。2009年初，在國內外各界有關景氣春天何時到來的詢問聲中，本研究嘗試分析美國房市歷史資料，推測此波谷底落點；進而運用產業關聯分析，推估2009年，我國出口受到美國營建業衰退的衝擊程度。研究結果推測美國本次房市景氣谷底應可落於2009年第一季，其後以約四年的時間，回歸長期需求成長趨勢水準。至於2009年因美國增建新屋減少，造成我國產品出口損失，約達69.65億美元（占2008年出口美國總額22.7%），各業別以機械產品的出口減少23.72億美元衝擊最大；至於其中因中國大陸出口減少，而間接造成我國出口的減少約5.48億美元。

The sharp downturn in the global economy in the second half of 2008, triggered by crisis in the financial sector, can be traced to the formation of asset bubbles from the over-expansion of housing and oil markets as its main originating causes. This study, conducted in early 2009 amid a chorus of inquiries at home and abroad as to when the economy would emerge from recession, tries to identify the trough of the slump from analysis of historic US housing market data. The study then employs analysis of industrial linkage to estimate the extent of impact of the US construction industry slump on Taiwan’s exports in the current year (2009). The study concludes that the US housing market slump should likely bottom out in the first quarter of 2009, with demand returning to its long-term growth trend within roughly four years thereafter. The study also finds that the reduction in US new housing construction in 2009 translates into a loss of approximately US$6.97 billion dollars for Taiwan’s exports, representing 22.7% of Taiwan’s total exports to the US in 2008. Taiwan’s machinery industry is worst affected, with loss of exports amounting to US$2.37 billion dollars. Moreover, the fall in exports from mainland China indirectly causes a further drop in Taiwan’s exports of approximately US$548 million dollars.