產業關聯表家計所得乘數之推估及其應用

The Estimation and Application of the Multiplier in the Input-Output Model

政府為提振國內經濟，近年來積極推動公共建設投資，公共建設效益評估常以總體計量模型及可計算一般均衡模型推估，二者之方程式數量龐大，變數估計繁多，卻仍不易估得細部門資料。產業關聯模型不僅可模擬政策運作總體效果，更能衡量政策運作對各細部門產出與投入影響。本文以Leontief之產業關聯模型及半封閉模型，估算各產業部門之所得效果以及家計所得乘數，進而利用1999、2001、2004三年產業關聯表推估各年各產業部門之所得效果以及家計所得乘數，以公共投資建設為例，引用產業關聯模型分析公共建設之政策效益，說明乘數效果之運用。本文發現公共及其他工程部門在1999、2004兩年間，家計所得乘數對經濟之影響效果明顯大於所得效果。透過消費、所得及生產之循環波及效果，所推得之所得乘數對經濟（GDP）之影響較為明顯，即所得乘數值較所得效果值大。

In order to revitalize Taiwan’s domestic economy, the government in recent years has been actively promoting investment in public construction. To assess the effect of such investment, government planners usually use the macroeconomic and general equilibrium models. But though these two models together cover an extensive array of equations and variables, they cannot easily be used to generate detailed sectoral data. The input-output model, however, can be used not only to simulate the macroeconomic effect of government policy, but also to measure the input and output effects of policy in each sector. In this paper, we use the Leontief input-output model and semi-closed model to compute the household income multiplier and income effect for each industrial sector, using the input-output tables for 1999, 2001 and 2004 to analyze the policy effects of public construction. This study finds that, in the public and other construction sectors between 1999 and 2004, the household income multiplier on the economy was markedly greater than the income effect. Through the cycle waves and effects of consumption, income and production, the total income multiplier on the economy (GDP) was more conspicuous, or in other words, the total income multiplier value was greater than the income effect.