美伊戰後國際油市情勢剖析

Developments in the International Oil Market after the USIraq War

美伊戰後掀起另一波高油價，國際油價一路從2003年5月初的每桶26美元飆漲到2005年8月底的70美元，對全球經濟造成衝擊。這波高油價主要受石油需求大幅增加的推動，迥異於第一、二次石油危機供應短缺造成油價暴漲；而近年來投機資金介入石油期貨市場炒作，亦推波助瀾，影響至鉅。未來全球高油價的環境可能持續存在，企業將面臨高成本、低獲利的壓力，而消費者也將承受物價上漲的衝擊，因此，政府應提出適宜政策引領企業與民眾迎接高油價時代的挑戰。

Following the USIraq war, a new wave of oil price hikes swept the global economy, with the WTI crudeoil spot price soaring from US$26 per barrel in early May 2003 to a peak of US$70 per barrel at the end of August 2005. This surge in oil prices can be attributed mainly to a sharp rise in demand for petroleum, unlike the previous two oil crises, which are believed to have been caused by a supply shortage. At the same time, intense speculation on the petroleum futures market has also contributed significantly to the volatility of oil prices in the past two years. As oil prices are likely to remain high in the future, businesses will have to contend with a highcost and lowprofit environment, while consumers will be also encounter inflationary pressure. Hence, the government needs to come up with appropriate policies to help businesses and the general public meet the challenges of a highoilprice era.