台灣景氣領先及同時指標之探討

A Review of Taiwan’s Leading and Coincident Indexes

景氣動向指標乃衡量一國景氣變動的測度，隨著整體經濟結構的變遷，景氣指標構成項目應做適度的修正，使正確反應景氣的變動。本研究除了利用峰谷對應法與交叉相關係數分析，挑選景氣指標構成項目，另應用Granger因果關係檢定以及遞歸模型等計量方法作為篩選指標的依據。

Business composite indices are devised to monitor economic vitality. It is important, therefore, that these indicators are adjusted from time to time in line with the changing structure of the economy so that they remain able to properly reflect changes in the economic situation. This paper first re-examines the relevance of Taiwan’s current leading and coincident indices. It then employs more recent econometric methods, such as cross-correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and the recursive model, to find better components among candidate data series for the composite leading and coincident indices.