The American “Rebalance” toward Asia, Hierarchy, Realism, and Power Transition Theory

美國再平衡政策、階層概念、現實主義以及權力轉移論

美國意圖扮演著華府對亞洲再平衡政策的關鍵角色。至目前為止，華府在亞洲各國間（包括中國）取得各方利益的平衡點。面對中國的軍事現代化以及日趨強勢的領土政策，美國對於亞洲事務採取縱向面以及橫向面的深化作為，並且加強和亞洲國家的軍事安全關係，藉此鞏固世界第一強權的區域影響力。相關政策背後所透露出的邏輯並非零和遊戲，而是建立在互相尊重，相互共識的基礎上。即使面對中國，美國也節制軍事作為，並強調對中國的交往政策。就目前階段，華府並不將中國視為完全敵對國，將之排除在區域事務之外。美國想要和中國建立良好的關係，並期望這段關係可以持續到將來。就此，再平衡政策強調的是一種較為友善的領導風格，相對現實主義而言，階層的概念較能提供一個適當的註解。文章最後也以權力轉移論檢視再平衡政策持續的可能性，以及政策改變之後，階層概念的適用性。

In the “Rebalance” toward Asia, Washington's preferences play a crucial role in relations with China and other Asian states. The preponderant power so far strikes a balance of interests among actors. In responses to China's military modernization and increasingly assertive actions on territorial issues, the U.S. deepens and broadens its involvement in Asian affairs and strengthens military presence in the region to consolidate American influence. These moves do not come at the expense of Asian countries including China. They are based on mutual consent. In consolidating its presence, Washington has engaged China and refrained from military containment. The U.S. doesn't decisively treat the Chinese as an adversary and tailor zero-sum policies accordingly. Instead, it intends to maintain relatively benign bilateral interactions at the current stage and into the foreseeable future. Since the “Rebalance” stresses a relatively benign leadership, hierarchy provides better explanations in understanding U.S relations with regional states than realism which emphasizes relative gains. The paper also employs power transition theory to exam the possibility of continuance of the “Rebalance” and the applicability of hierarchy defined by a relatively benign leadership.