水資源合作與衝突之比較研究

A Comparative Study of Water Cooperation and Conflicts

自冷戰結束以來，隨著水資源的短缺，許多研究報告紛紛主張，水將是下一個全球危機的根源。水資源戰爭更儼然成為新世紀人類安全最大威脅。不過其他學者卻認為，國家通常選擇合作而不是對抗來處理彼此共有的水資源。鑒於現有研究成果對於水資源議題的討論，多數只從衝突或合作的單一面向，進行個別討論，缺乏交互比較。本研究運用羅吉斯迴歸法(logistic regression analysis)，分析自1948年起至2007年間，全球263條國際河川流域內，因水資源變化而引發的國際互動。藉由比較水資源衝突發生(conflict onset)與合作發生(cooperation onset)之最佳預測變數組合，研究結果顯示，不論是自然供給面的改變，或是人為因素所造成之結構面的供給變化，水資源的稀缺的確會增加國際衝突的風險，不過國家特徵變數對於合作與衝突的發生也有一定程度之影響。

Since the end of cold war, as global water scarcity increases, many studies argue that 'water war＂ will be the next global cri­sis. Water has become the greatest threat to human security in the new century. Yet other scholars argue that states typically cooper­ate rather than fight to manage their shard water resources. This study examines the interactions of 25,354 dyads (country pairs) sharing the total 265 international rivers in the period from 1948 to 2007. The empirical results of the Logistic Regression Analysis indicate that, while both supply-induced and structural-induced water scarcity will certainly increase the risk of conflict, some of the national characteristics are also crucial to the occurrence of water cooperation and conflict.