臺灣景氣循環中最適金融投資工具組合之探討

A Study on the Optimal Portfolio of Financial Instruments over Business Cycles in Taiwan

近年來，台灣的貧富差距日益擴大，投資人都想要選擇高報酬、低風險的投資工具。因此投資人應掌握在最適當的投資時機下，配合不同的投資工具，再恰當的運用投資組合，創造財富並達到分散風險的目的。本研究期間為民國85年4月至94年2月，共107個月，依據行政院經濟建設委員會所公佈的台灣景氣循環基準日期，劃分擴張時期、收縮時期、全循環時期，並選擇5項金融投資工具。在國內權益證券（台灣加權股價指數）；國外權益證券（美國S&P500綜合指數、英國FT-SE100指數、日經225指數之加權平均）；外幣存款（美元、歐元、英磅、日幣之定存之加權平均）；固定收益證券（公債、國內一年期定存之加權平均）；黃金現貨為金融投資工具。在各景氣循環時期的金融投資工具，以平均報酬率、標準差、夏普指數做為績效衡量指標，再用相關係數分析找出呈現負相關的金融投資工具。實證結果顯示：外幣存款在擴張時期、收縮時期、全循環時期的報酬最高，風險低，超額報酬大於風險，是最佳的金融投資工具。\r本研究選出最佳的金融投資工具是外幣存款，所以用外幣存款來進行投資組合配置，追求最佳的金融投資工具組合。投資組合一（外幣存款和國內權益證券）、投資組合二（外幣存款和國外權益證券）、投資組合三（外幣存款和黃金現貨）、投資組合四（外幣存款和固定收益證券），利用投資組合變異數、投資組合標準差、投資組合期望報酬率、相關係數，以及不同權重的投資組合，計算出投資組合之效率前緣分析。實證結果顯示：最佳的高報酬低風險的金融投資工具組合為投資組合一（外幣存款和國內權益證券）。

In recent years， the growing gap between rich and poor in Taiwan， people want to choose the high investment returns， low risk investment vehicle. Therefore， investors should understand what the most appropriate investment opportunities with different investment tools， and then use the appropriate investment portfolio， create wealth and achieve risk diversification purposes. The study period for the Republic of 85 April to 94 February， a total of 107 months， based on Council for Economic Planning of Taiwan's business cycle published by the benchmark date， divided during the expansion， contraction period， the whole cycle time， and select 5 financial investment instruments. In the domestic equity securities （Taiwan Weighted Stock Index）; foreign equity securities （U.S. S & P 500 Composite Index， the UK FT-SE100 index， the Nikkei 225 index of weighted average）; foreign currency deposits （USD， EUR， GBP， JPY of the weighted average deposit）; fixed income securities （Bonds， the domestic one-year weighted average deposit）; prime spot for the financial investment instruments. In the business cycle during the financial investment instruments， at an average rate of return， standard deviation， Sharpe ratio as a performance measure， then a negative correlation coefficient analysis to identify the relevant financial instruments. Empirical results show that: foreign currency deposits during the expansion， contraction period， the full cycle period of the highest paid， low-risk， excess return is greater than the risk， the best financial investment instruments. In this study， select the best financial investment instruments are foreign currency deposits， foreign currency deposits for portfolio allocation， the pursuit of the best combination of financial investment instruments. Investment portfolio one (foreign currency deposits and domestic equity securities)， investment portfolio two (foreign currency deposits and foreign equity securities)， investment portfolio three (foreign currency deposits and gold spot)， investment portfolio four (foreign currency deposits and fixed income securities)， the use of investment portfolio variance， standard deviation of the portfolio， the portfolio expected return， correlation， and different weights of the portfolio to calculate the portfolio efficient frontier analysis. The empirical results show: the best low risk high reward investment instruments combination of financial investment portfolio one (foreign currency deposits and domestic equity securities).