時勢造英雄？臺灣個人所得的世代差異，1992－2017

Taiwanese Cohort Inequalities in Individual Earnings, 1992-2017

近年來，臺灣社會輿論關注所得差距擴大、特別是世代之間所得差異的原因與後果。本文採用臺灣社會變遷基本調查，以內部估計模型（Intrinsic estimator, IE）分離人口學關注的年齡、時期與世代三個時間因素（age, period, cohort, APC）對臺灣民眾所得差異的影響，發現除了年齡、時期、教育、階級、性別等因素之外，有顯著的世代差異。戰後到1972年以前出生的嬰兒潮世代，享有經濟成長時期所帶來的所得優勢，而1978年後出生的年輕世代則普遍的所得較低。勞動市場供需結構是可能的影響機制，包括高教擴張提升技術勞動供給以及服務業低薪工作增加等，但多種外部因素的影響機制仍需後續研究深入探討。

The Taiwanese public has expressed concerns regarding the causes and consequences of a widening income gap, especially earnings differences between cohort groups. This study uses data from 1992-2017 Taiwan Social Change Surveys with Intrinsic Estimator model to identify the individual effects of age, period, and cohort on earnings. After controlling for the effects of education, class, and gender differences, the cohort effect was found to be both independent and profound, with individuals born between pre-World War II years and 1972 enjoying the advantages of resources that emerged during a period of strong economic growth, and with individuals born after 1978 limited to more flexible and lower-wage jobs. Labor market structure and other possible explanations for this phenomena are discussed.