動態退休決策與職涯期間之分析

Dynamic Retirement Patterns and the Duration of Working Life

本文使用華人家庭動態資料庫長期追蹤調查，分析臺灣勞工的動態退休模式。我們定義並分析兩種漸進式退休行為，其一為退休前先減少工時，其二為退休後再從事銜接性就業。Logistic迴歸結果顯示，薪資所得和職業屬性對這兩種行為皆有顯著解釋能力，而性別則無顯著影響。健康和配偶相關屬性對於退休後的銜接性就業有顯著影響，但與退休前降低工時的安排卻無顯著關聯。我們進一步使用Cox proportional hazard模型探討漸進式退休與職涯期間之關聯，結果顯示退休後從事銜接性就業是延長職涯的有效手段；然而，我們並未得到退休前降低工時的漸進式安排有助延長職涯的證據。

This study investigates dynamic retirement patterns in Taiwan using longi¬tudinal data. We identify two forms of transitional behaviors referred to as “phased retirement”: (1) the arrangement of work reduction before retiring from a job, and (2) the presence of “bridge employment” after a declared retirement. The determinants of these transitional behaviors are estimated with logistic models. Earned income and occupational attributes are found to be persistently relevant in predicting both behaviors, while gender does not seem relevant. Health and spousal attributes have significant effects on the behavior of bridge employment but not on pre-retirement work reduction. We further explore the association between phased retirement behaviors and the duration of working life using the Cox proportional hazard model, and bridge employment appears to be an effec¬tive means to extend working life. However, we did not find a positive associa¬tion between within-job phased retirement and the length of working life.