財產稅租稅資本化：縣市合併升格的準實驗分析結果

Property Tax Capitalization: Evidence from the Municipal Merger Reform in Taiwan

本文以臺灣2010年三組縣市合併升格直轄市（臺中縣市、臺南縣市與高雄縣市）所產生的地價稅稅額外生變動作為準實驗（quasi-experiment），分析地價稅是否解釋土地價格的變動。縣市升格後，因重新計算地價稅之累進起點地價，使得原縣轄（原市轄）所適用的累進起點地價上升（下降），進而導致地價稅稅額下降（上升）。以2007年至2015年的土地交易資料，採差異中的差異模型（difference-in-difference）分析，實證結果顯示：實驗組中的原縣轄土地價格有明顯資本化（capitalization）的現象，外生的稅負下降使原縣轄土地，相較於未升格之控制組，價格上升；原市轄土地資本化的理論假說並無法獲得證實。

We exploit exogenous changes in land value tax burden caused by a municipal-level government reform in 2010 to examine the property tax capitalization. In 2010, three pairs of counties and cities were merged into three municipalities (Taichung City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City), resulting in increases in taxes of lands of the original cities and decreases in taxes of lands of the original counties. Using 2007–2015 land transaction data, the difference-in-difference estimates suggest robust evidence of capitalization in lands of the original counties. However, there are mixed results on capitalization in the lands of the original cities.